Thursday, June 18, 2015

Brokers Willing to Pay Up for Fiduciary Standard: SIFMA

A uniform fiduciary standard implemented by the Securities and Exchange Commission would hit brokers with $8 million in new compliance costs, according to the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association.

Updating disclosure documents would cost $3 million, and the initial build-out of compliance systems and training would cost another $5 million, said SIFMA, which represents banks, securities firms and asset managers.

But Ira Hammerman, SIFMA’s senior managing director and general counsel, told AdvisorOne on Monday that BDs “are generally willing to incur” the above mentioned additional compliance costs “in order to arrive at a new fiduciary standard.”

The Financial Planning Coalition of advisory industry trade groups argues that advisors at BDs who deliver advice under a fiduciary standard experience stronger asset growth, and that the conversion of fee-based brokerage accounts to fiduciary, nondiscretionary advisory accounts would impose “little if any additional cost or burden.”

Charles Schwab, however, flipped the scenario around, telling the SEC in its comment letter what it would cost for registered investment advisors to comply with BD rules should the agency decide to include “harmonizing” BD and advisor rules in its fiduciary rule proposal.

Depending on how broadly the commission would apply “harmonized rules — whether to some or all RIAs,” harmonized rules could cost the RIA industry a whopping $1 billion, Christopher Gilkerson, Schwab’s senior vice president and deputy general counsel, told the SEC.

SIFMA, Schwab and the coalition members — which include the Financial Planning Association, the National Association of Personal Financial Advisors and the CFP Board — expressed their views in comment letters to the SEC as part of the agency’s March 1 request for information on the costs and benefits of a uniform fiduciary standard. The comment period ended July 5.

Hammerman told the SEC that “SIFMA remains strongly supportive of a uniform fiduciary standard for broker-dealers and investment advisors when providing personalized investment advice about securities to individual retail clients.”

SIFMA surveyed 18 of its member firms — 12 large BDs and six regional ones — to arrive at the $8 million in additional compliance costs under a fiduciary standard. SIFMA said that it focused on two specific areas where its members believe they would be hit hard by a fiduciary rule — the costs of developing and maintaining a disclosure form similar to Form ADV Part 2A, and the costs of developing and maintaining new supervisory systems, procedures and training programs to implement the new standard.

SIFMA noted in its comment letter that as the SEC has not issued a “concrete” fiduciary proposal yet, “it is not possible to adequately identify and estimate all the costs of establishing a uniform fiduciary standard.”

The coalition used Cerulli Associates data from 2007 to back up its argument that the conversion of non-fiduciary, fee-based brokerage accounts to fiduciary, nondiscretionary advisory accounts would impose “little if any additional cost or burden.” /* .premium-promo { border: 1px solid #ddd; padding: 10px; margin: 0 10px 10px 0; width: 200px; float: left; } .premium-promo li, .premium-promo ul { list-style-type: none; margin: 0; padding: 0; } .premium-promo li { margin: 0 0 10px; padding: 0 0 10px; border-bottom: 1px dotted #ddd; } .premium-promo h3 { text-transform: uppercase; font-size: 11px; } .premium-promo h4 { font-size: 16px; } .premium-promo a { text-decoration: none !important; } .premium-promo .btn { background: #0069a1; border-radius: 4px; display: inline-block; padding: 5px 10px; clear: both; color: #fff; font-weight: bold; } .premium-promo .btn:hover { background: #034c92; } */ The coalition notes that Cerulli found that, even after the broad market declines of 2008, the client assets in nondiscretionary advisory accounts rose by almost 75% from approximately $329.6 billion at the end of the conversion process in 2007 to $574 billion in the third quarter of 2012.

Meanwhile, the coalition writes, “the level of fees charged to customers for this service model at the major national firms has stayed flat or decreased since 2007. In sum, the experience of converting fee-based (non-fiduciary) brokerage accounts to nondiscretionary advisory (fiduciary) accounts demonstrates that the expense of operating under a fiduciary model has not prevented the number of accounts and level of assets in those accounts from continuing to grow.”

Of the 800 advisors who responded to Schwab’s survey, the respondents reported that harmonizing advisor and BD rules in the areas of licensing, registration and continuing education would have the greatest burden, followed by books and records and supervision requirements, with duty of care coming in last.

The coalition also told the SEC to hold off on harmonizing BD and advisor rules until it adopts a fiduciary rule, as the two issues are “conceptually distinct” and should be analyzed on their “own merits.” While a fiduciary standard of care is “a relatively simple concept to adopt and apply and will have immediate benefits to customers,” harmonization “is a more time-consuming process requiring the comparison and evaluation of many different rules.”

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Check out SEC Gets an Earful From Advisors on Fiduciary Standard.

Wednesday, June 17, 2015

July 8: Earnings in the Limelight - Economic Highlights

Friday's strong jobs report shed a positive light on the labor market and likely increased the odds of Fed 'tapering' in the coming months. The bond market's move towards pricing in such an outcome has thankfully not become a problem for the stock market, at least not yet. We will know more later this week as minutes of the last FOMC meeting get released. But at this stage, the stock market is taking the 100 basis point jump in benchmark yields since early May in the stride.

Thankfully for us, the focus shifts from the Fed this week to the 2013 Q2 earnings season with the earnings reports from Alcoa (AA) later today and Yum Brands (YUM), J.P. Morgan (JPM) and Wells Fargo (WFC) later this week. Expectations remain low enough that companies wouldn't face much difficulty coming ahead of them. About two-thirds of companies beat earnings expectations in a typical quarter any way and there is no reason to think that the Q2 earnings season will be any different. My sense is that earnings growth and earnings surprises in the Q2 reporting cycle would be along the lines of what we saw in Q1.

Current expectations are for +0.4% growth in total earnings in Q2, down from +3.9% in early April, while total S&P 500 earnings increased by +2.8% in Q1. Nine of the 16 Zacks sectors are expected to show negative earnings growth in Q2. The growth picture in is even more underwhelming when Finance is excluded from the data. Outside of Finance, total earnings for the S&P 500 would be down -3.2% in Q2.

But even more significant than growth rates and surprises will be guidance. Guidance is always important, but it will likely be far more important this time around given the elevated expectations for the second half of the year. Total earnings are expected to be up +5.1% in 2013 Q3 and by +11.7% in Q4, giving us a second-half growth pace of +9.2% from the same period the year before, which comes after +2.7% earnings growth in the first half. Importantly, the growth expectations for the sec! ond half are not due to easy comparisons – the level of total earnings expected in 2013 Q3 and Q4 represent new all-time high quarterly records.

My sense is that estimates need to come down in a big way. The market hasn't cared much in the recent past about negative revisions as aggregate earnings estimates have been coming down for over a year now. But if we are entering a post-QE world, as I believe we are, then it will likely be difficult to overlook negative earnings estimate revisions going forward. How the market responds to negative guidance over and the resulting negative revisions will tell us a lot about what to expect going forward.

Sunday, June 14, 2015

Why Changyou Shares Got Crushed

Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.

What: Shares of Chinese online gaming operator Changyou.com (NASDAQ: CYOU  ) plummeted 19% today after its quarterly results and outlook disappointed Wall Street.

So what: The stock has soared over the past year on a string of better-than-expected quarters, but today's Q2 revenue miss -- $182.4 million versus the average estimate of $183.4 million -- coupled with downbeat guidance for the Q3 is forcing Mr. Market to quickly sober up. And while Changyou's profit of $75.2 million managed to top estimates, gross margin during the quarter slipped 100 basis points, suggesting that the super-high earnings growth is getting more expensive to sustain.   

Now what: Management now sees third-quarter EPS of $1.33-$1.38 on revenue of $180 million-$186 million, well below the consensus of $1.48 and $191 million. "With an array of new games planned for the PC, Web and mobile and the capabilities we have built over the years in game development, operation, marketing and distribution, we believe we are positioned to succeed over the long-term," CEO Tao Wang reassured investors. More important, with the stock now off about 20% from its 52-week highs and trading at a forward P/E of around 6, Mr. Market might finally be providing a window to buy into that bullishness.

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Wednesday, June 10, 2015

Did Disney Just Kill 3-D TV?

With Walt Disney's (NYSE: DIS  ) ESPN unit announcing that it will shut down its 3-D production unit at the end of the year because of the cost and a lack of interest from customers, does this mean the 3-D TV business has failed?

Well, the answer is complicated.

Movie theaters that offer the 3-D experience have seen revenues decline since Avatar came out in 2010. While that movie brought the technology to the forefront and got a lot of people talking, a number of big-screen directors have since opted to not shoot their films in 3-D. As my colleague Travis Hoium pointed out earlier in the week, three out of the top four films last year weren't shot in 3-D. When customers aren't being fed the experience at the box office, they don't know how good it is and therefore don't know they should have it at home.

Furthermore, most Americans have probably upgraded their TVs in the past few years, with flat-screen TVs taking off around 2005 and 2006 and HDTVs following shortly after. So getting a few additional channels or movies in 3-D probably doesn't justify the expense of upgrading again. The recession certainly didn't help, either.

While I don't think 3-D is dead, I don't believe the technology is going to take the living room by storm anytime soon, and Disney apparently agrees. With live sports as a potential selling point for a lot of people who might have been thinking about going 3-D, Disney's decision to cut the cord will probably slow the growth of 3-D TVs even more.

As for Disney, this is probably a good move. Disney's stock has performed wonderfully year to date, up more than 28%, so some investors may be wondering why ESPN is cutting the 3-D unit, or why it recently announced that it's laying off employees in an effort to cut costs. After all, the stock has outperformed the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI  ) by 13.34% this year.

But Disney's management knows that for the company to continue to perform at a high level, it must always be looking for ways grow revenue, save money, and add value. In other words, Disney's recent cuts may just be an example of why the stock has performed so well -- even if it means 3-D sports won't be coming to your living room anytime soon.

It's easy to forget that Walt Disney is more than just the House of Mouse. True, Disney amusement parks around the world hosted more than 121 million guests in 2011. But from its vast catalog of characters to its monster collection of media networks, much of Disney's allure for investors lies in its diversity, and The Motley Fool's premium research report lays out the case for investing in Disney today. This report includes the key items investors must watch as well as the opportunities and threats the company faces going forward. So don't miss out -- simply click here now to claim your copy today.

Tuesday, June 9, 2015

AFC Enterprises Beats on Revenue, Matches Expectations on EPS

AFC Enterprises (Nasdaq: AFCE  ) reported earnings on May 29. Here are the numbers you need to know.

The 10-second takeaway
For the quarter ended April 21 (Q1), AFC Enterprises beat expectations on revenues and met expectations on earnings per share.

Compared to the prior-year quarter, revenue increased. GAAP earnings per share increased significantly.

Gross margins grew, operating margins dropped, net margins increased.

Revenue details
AFC Enterprises recorded revenue of $60.4 million. The three analysts polled by S&P Capital IQ foresaw revenue of $59.1 million on the same basis. GAAP reported sales were 14% higher than the prior-year quarter's $52.8 million.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Dollar amounts in millions. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

EPS details
EPS came in at $0.40. The four earnings estimates compiled by S&P Capital IQ averaged $0.40 per share. GAAP EPS of $0.40 for Q1 were 18% higher than the prior-year quarter's $0.34 per share.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

Margin details
For the quarter, gross margin was 68.2%, 20 basis points better than the prior-year quarter. Operating margin was 26.8%, 10 basis points worse than the prior-year quarter. Net margin was 15.9%, 20 basis points better than the prior-year quarter. (Margins calculated in GAAP terms.)

Looking ahead
Next quarter's average estimate for revenue is $45.3 million. On the bottom line, the average EPS estimate is $0.31.

Next year's average estimate for revenue is $200.9 million. The average EPS estimate is $1.39.

Investor sentiment
The stock has a three-star rating (out of five) at Motley Fool CAPS, with 73 members out of 90 rating the stock outperform, and 17 members rating it underperform. Among 25 CAPS All-Star picks (recommendations by the highest-ranked CAPS members), 21 give AFC Enterprises a green thumbs-up, and four give it a red thumbs-down.

Of Wall Street recommendations tracked by S&P Capital IQ, the average opinion on AFC Enterprises is outperform, with an average price target of $36.38.

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Monday, June 8, 2015

How Will Silvercorp Metals Overcome Silver's Decline?

On Wednesday, Silvercorp Metals (NYSE: SVM  ) will release its latest quarterly results. The key to making smart investment decisions on stocks reporting earnings is to anticipate how they'll do before they announce results, leaving you fully prepared to respond quickly to whatever inevitable surprises arise. That way, you'll be less likely to make an uninformed knee-jerk reaction to news that turns out to be exactly the wrong move.

Silvercorp Metals was already making its investors suffer before April's big swoon for the gold and silver markets. Now, narrowing profit margins due to low silver prices could further squeeze silver miners and eventually threaten their profitability. Let's take an early look at what's been happening with Silvercorp Metals over the past quarter and what we're likely to see in its quarterly report.

Stats on Silvercorp Metals

Analyst EPS Estimate

$0.04

Change From Year-Ago EPS

(33%)

Revenue Estimate

$52.21 million

Change From Year-Ago Revenue

18%

Earnings Beats in Past 4 Quarters

1

Source: Yahoo! Finance.

Can Silvercorp Metals boost its earnings?
Analysts have gotten a lot more nervous about Silvercorp Metals in recent months, cutting their earnings estimates for the just-ended quarter by $0.02. But they see the real damage coming in the next fiscal year, having slashed their fiscal 2014 estimates by nearly half, and that's largely responsible for the 40% plunge in the stock since mid-February.

We've already gotten a sense of what Silvercorp expects in its future results, as the company issued guidance for its fiscal 2014 year back in February. With increases in ore production at the Canadian company's Chinese mines to 1.5 million tons, Silvercorp hopes to produce 6.7 million ounces of silver, 20,800 ounces of gold, and almost 105 million pounds of lead and zinc, among other base metals and byproducts.

Yet the big problem that lies ahead for Silvercorp is the plunge in commodities that occurred in April. Although that won't get reflected in Wednesday's numbers, they could definitely play a big part in its future guidance going forward. Fortunately, Silvercorp's costs are relatively low, with the company actually posting negative cash costs in the Ying Mining District in its most recent quarter, but nevertheless, even it can't avoid the impact of falling market prices for its products.

If the plunge persists, then it could eventually pressure Silvercorp to cut its dividend. Silver Wheaton (NYSE: SLW  ) reduced its payout from $0.14 to $0.12 per share in its most recent quarter, noting the decline in cash flow that falling silver prices produced as the main contributing factor in the decision. Still, Pan American Silver (NASDAQ: PAAS  ) kept its dividend steady earlier this month, and even with lower projected earnings in light of silver's drop, it has ample profits to cover its dividend, and Silvercorp appears to have the same advantage.

In Silvercorp's quarterly report, watch closely for signs that lower prices might spur the company to change its planned capital expenditures or other critical business functions. If Silvercorp starts battening down the hatches with cost cuts, it could be a sign that the crash in commodities is more serious than some investors currently believe.

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Thursday, June 4, 2015

Marking the Way for Alzheimer's Drugs

Editor's note: An earlier version of this article incorrectly stated that Eli Lilly purchased two companies from Siemens. The actual transaction was for two tracers used in detecting tau tangles. The video also misidentifies a collaboration between Eli Lilly and General Electric for similar diagnostic products. GE Healthcare is developing a tau tangle imaging test that is independent of Eli Lilly. The Fool regrets the error.

In this video, health care analyst David Williamson discusses Eli Lilly's  (NYSE: LLY  )  recent purchase of two imaging tracers from German conglomerate Siemens. The big pharma currently has Amyvid approved, which detects amyloid brain plaques. Like Amyvid, Eli Lilly is hoping that these tau tangle diagnostics will help both with detection and potentially serve as markers for treatment. Watch and find out how the treatment for Alzheimer's disease is evolving and some potentially groundbreaking drugs in the pipeline.

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Wednesday, June 3, 2015

How to Stay Informed About Netflix Stock News

Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX  ) CEO Reed Hastings got into hot water last summer. A couple of his personal Facebook (NASDAQ: FB  ) updates contained information that some considered to be of material interest to shareholders. Indeed, one update on sky-high streaming hours certainly moved the Netflix stock.

Some thought this was an inappropriate use of social media. An SEC investigation was started, not to mention several class action lawsuits. Tweets and Facebook posts shouldn't be required reading for investors! These outlets have no business affecting Netflix share prices!

The storm has mostly blown over. The SEC dropped its investigation last week, but also provided Netflix with guidelines on what social media is kosher or not for business disclosures. And last night, Netflix provided a handy list to keep investors informed -- published as an 8-K SEC filing, just to be sure.

In this filing, Netflix notes that material information will typically be found in all the usual channels:

Its investor relations site

SEC filings

Press releases

Public conference calls and webcasts

But that's no longer all. A truly informed Netflix investor should also keep tabs on these newfangled potential news outlets:

The Netflix blog

The Netflix tech blog

The company's Facebook page

Its official Twitter feed

And of course, Reed Hastings' Facebook page, which started this whole spectacle.

For what it's worth, I've been tracking all of these channels for years. It just seems appropriate for a Netflix shareholder who frequently writes about the company, don't you think? SEC rules have finally caught up to reality.

As long as this list is, I'm actually still missing a few seemingly obvious outlets. Wouldn't it make sense to include the business-oriented LinkedIn (NYSE: LNKD  ) service? Netflix may not post a lot of original articles there, but you can often find out about promotions and firings from that public source.

And speaking of jobs, you can often draw business conclusions from Netflix's online job postings (at Netflix and LinkedIn, though neither page is included in the "essential reading" list above). For example, the company is hiring lots of content acquisition specialists in Latin America right now. Should we expect heavy content investments and a local marketing push to follow?

I think we should expect similar lists from many other companies, especially in the tech and media spheres. Netflix is far from the only business to make use of modern communications channels, and investment-grade information could easily slip into such channels by mistake. So why not make it official?

That would be a huge personal victory for Hastings, who also serves on Facebook's board of directors. Expanding and legitimizing that service for new uses, like market-moving news postings, would certainly be in Facebook's best interest.

And staying out of legal and regulatory trouble when juicy tidbits are dropped into Twitter or Facebook is most definitely good for Netflix and its stock. Well played, Mr. Hastings.

Another source of Netflix news
The Motley Fool has released a premium report on Netflix. Inside, you'll learn about the key opportunities and risks facing the company, as well as reasons to buy or sell the stock. The report includes a full year of updates to cover critical new developments, so make sure to click here and claim a copy today.

Tuesday, June 2, 2015

Tesla Rising: ‘Model 3′ for Mass Market On Tap, Says Global Equities

As noted earlier today by Ben in this space, Tesla (TSLA) shares got a boost from founder Elon Musk having tweeted something mysterious about the letter “D.”

Global Equities Research‘s Trip Chowdhry, who Ben noted on Monday opined that a four-wheel drive model of the “Model S” sedan may be introduced within the next three months, today returns with more Tesla prognostications.

Writes Chowdhry, three new unveilings can be expected from Tesla on October 9th, next Thursday.

He contends a “mass market” car, the “Model 3,” will be unveiled, citing as reasons:

We also know, Franz, Tesla Chief Designer, spends almost 90% of his time in LA Design Center; Now we know that Tesla’s Oct’9 Event is being held at Tesla’s LA Design Center and “NOT” in Palo Alto or Fremont; There are still 3 potential investors in GigaFactory – LG Chem, Sanyo and Apple – and investment from these entities will be easier, if TSLA can show the mass market car Model 3, that will need the GigaFactory; All the above data points taken together, indicates that it is very likely that Tesla will unveil the Model 3, the mass market Tesla car.

In addition, Chowdhry anticipates the all-wheel drive Model S, noting “we have seen this car on HWY 92 and have also spoken to the Driver.”

And lastly, Model S will add what’s known as “semi-autonomous driver-assistance system,” or SADAS, which, he contends, will use cameras from sensor maker MobileEye (MBLY).

Tesla shares today rose $3.79, or 1.5%, to close at $255.21. MobileEye stock rose $2.70, almost 5%, today, to close at $57.70.

Update: In related news, Bloomberg‘s Ian King and Keith Naughton this evening write that the October 9th event will feature Tesla’s “first foray toward automated driving with a suite of new high-tech features,” citing an unnamed source.

 

Monday, June 1, 2015

Solid Motor Vehicle Sales and Hot Twitter News Help Stocks to Fresh Records

Soccer can be slow. And so is the week before July, as the nation saunters through a four-day week. Investors were mainly looking forward to the upcoming jobs news this week (ADP reports June's job numbers Wednesday, but the Labor Department will announce the official number on Thursday). As Wall Street slowly left the office early to catch the U.S. World Cup game, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI  ) managed to jump 129 points Tuesday to reach new record highs.   1. Twitter unveils cool new feature (and new CFO)
You're probably on Instagram right now, but for those of you who enjoy 140-character literature, Twitter (NYSE: TWTR  ) made two major announcements that sent the stock up nearly 3% in after-hours trading on Tuesday.

It was a #OneTwoPunch in the Twittersphere. First, the company unveiled a "Buy Now" button that would add an e-commerce element, allowing you the purchase those kinky Miley Cyrus booty shorts right after she describes them to her nation of followers. The button doesn't officially work yet, but Wall Street expects it to play a major role in the company's plan to become profitable (it isn't yet).

And then Twitter made some serious HR moves. Investors were pumped to see that Anthony Noto, a managing director at Goldman Sachs, will receive 1.5 million shares of Twitter stock and $250,000 in annual salary to become the new CFO. Now-former CFO Mike Gupta is moving over to the "Strategic Investments" division. Awkward.

The takeaway is that while you've been busy slacking off before the July 4 holiday, Twitter has been getting after it like it's heading to an NFL preseason camp. Earlier in the week, Twitter introduced a new ad unit that will let you download third-party apps directly from Twitter's mobile app, and it bought up TapCommerce, a start-up that will better target ads to users.

2. June motor vehicle sales show Americans don't mind recalls
Americans don't care about public twerking, and they apparently don't care about recalls, either. Despite embarrassingly recalling millions of faulty cars recently, the national Motor Vehicle Sales Report for June showed that General Motors (NYSE: GM  ) boasted sales gains last month. Clearly, the connection between broken cars and quality isn't happening in the minds of American consumers, who snatched up over 267,000 GM vehicles in June, up 1% from a year earlier.
 
The Debbie-downer award goes to Ford. The company's sales slipped by 6% after deciding to discount its powerhouse F-series pickup truck line. Ford's (NYSE: F  ) putting its truck-makin' plants on pause later this year to prepare for the next generation of F-150 trucks. That hurts sales in the short term (though idle plant workers get some vacay time), but since the F-150 is the highest-selling vehicle in Amurica, it's worth it the investment.
 
The takeaway is that analysts were expecting overall motor vehicle sales to fall, but they ended up pretty much flat last month. May was a hot sales month after all those winter polar vortexes stopped scaring away consumers, so this was a major confidence boost for investors with exposure to the U.S. auto industry.   As originally published on MarketSnacks.com  

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