Thursday, July 16, 2015

6 Stocks Moving on Unusual Volume

DELAFIELD, Wis. (Stockpickr) -- At Stockpickr, we track daily portfolios of stocks that are the biggest percentage gainers and the biggest percentage losers.

Stocks that are making large moves like these are favorites among short-term traders because they can jump into these names and try to capture some of that massive volatility. Stocks that are making big-percentage moves either up or down are usually in play because their sector is becoming attractive or they have a major fundamental catalyst such as a recent earnings release. Sometimes stocks making big moves have been hit with an analyst upgrade or an analyst downgrade.

Regardless of the reason behind it, when a stock makes a large-percentage move, it is often just the start of a new major trend -- a trend that can lead to huge profits. If you time your trade correctly, combining technical indicators with fundamental trends, discipline and sound money management, you will be well on your way to investment success.

With that in mind, let's take a closer look at a several stocks under $10 that are making large moves to the upside today. pSivida (PSDV) This company develops tiny, sustained-release, drug delivery products designed to deliver drugs at a controlled and steady rate for months or years. This stock closed up 6.6% to $4.04 in Thursday's trading session. Thursday's Range: $3.78-$4.12 52-Week Range: $1.17-$4.12 Thursday's Volume: 785,000 Three-Month Average Volume: 180,467 From a technical perspective, PSDV ripped higher here and broke out above some near-term overhead resistance at $3.83 with heavy upside volume. This stock also flirted with another breakout above its former 52-week high at $4.08, before it closed just below that level at $4.12. This stock has been uptrending strong for the last month, with shares moving higher from its low of $3.15 to its intraday high of $4.12. During that move, shares of PSDV have been consistently making higher lows and higher highs, which is bullish technical price action. Traders should now look for long-biased trades in PSDV as long as it's trending above support at $3.80 or above its 50-day at $3.59, and then once it sustains a move or close above Thursday's high of $4.12 with volume that hits near or above 180,467 shares. If we get that move soon, then PSDV will set up to enter new 52-week high territory, which is bullish technical price action. Some possible upside targets off that move are its next major overhead resistance levels at $4.81 to $5.23. Any high-volume move above those levels could easily send PSDV towards $6.

Pain Therapeutics (PTIE)

This is a biopharmaceutical company that develops novel drugs. It has four drug candidates in clinical programs, including Remoxy, Oxytrex, PTI-202 and a novel radio-labeled monoclonal antibody to treat metastatic melanoma. This stock closed up 0.75% to $2.70 in Thursday's trading session.

Thursday's Range: $2.59-$2.73

52-Week Range: $2.15-$5.86 Thursday's Volume: 165,000 Three-Month Average Volume: 399,812 From a technical perspective, PTIE moved modestly higher here right above its 50-day moving average of $2.48 with lighter-than-average volume. This move is quickly pushing shares of PTIE within range of triggering a near-term breakout trade. That trade will hit if PTIE manages to take out its 200-day moving average of $2.81 and then once it clears some more near-term overhead resistance levels at $2.84 to $2.90 with high volume. Traders should now look for long-biased trades in PTIE as long as it's trending above its 50-day at $2.48, and then once it sustains a move or close above those breakout levels with volume that hits near or above 399,812 shares. If that breakout triggers soon, then PTIE will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance level at $3.45. Any high-volume move above $3.45 will then give PTIE a chance to re-fill some of its previous gap down zone from May that started above $5. Conatus Pharmaceuticals (CNAT) This company is engaged in the development and commercialization of novel medicines to treat liver disease. Its lead compound, emricasan, is applied in the treatment of chronic liver disease and acute exacerbations of chronic liver disease. This stock closed up 5.6% to $9.19 in Thursday's trading session. Thursday's Range: $8.80-$9.46 52-Week Range: $8.26-$11.24 Thursday's Volume: 41,000 Three-Month Average Volume: 133,582 From a technical perspective, CNAT jumped higher here right above some near-term support at $8.51 with lighter-than-average volume. This move is quickly pushing shares of CNAT within range of triggering a major breakout trade. That trade will hit if CNAT manages to take out some near-term overhead resistance levels at $9.45 to $9.60 and then once it clears more resistance at $9.72 with high volume.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in CNAT as long as it's trending above Thursday's low of $8.80, and then once it sustains a move or close above those breakout levels with volume that hits near or above 133,582 shares. If that breakout hits soon, then CNAT will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance level at $11.

China Recycling Energy (CREG)

This company engages in the recycling energy business, providing energy savings and recycling products and services. This stock closed up 12.5% to $2.42 in Thursday's trading session.

Thursday's Range: $2.15-$2.49 52-Week Range: $0.78-$2.49 Thursday's Volume: 355,000 Three-Month Average Volume: 95,671 From a technical perspective, CREG ripped sharply higher here right off its 50-day moving average of $2.12 with heavy upside volume. This move briefly pushed shares of CREG into breakout territory, since the stock took out some near-term overhead resistance at $2.45. Shares of CREG closed just below that breakout level at $2.42 with volume that was well above its three-month average action of 95,671 shares. Traders should now look for long-biased trades in CREG as long as it's trending above its 50-day at $2.12, and then once it sustains a move or close above Thursday's high of $2.49 with volume that hits near or above 95,671 shares. If we get that move soon, then CREG will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance level at $3.50. Meru Networks (MERU) This company provides a virtualized wireless LAN solution that optimizes the enterprise network to deliver the performance and operational simplicity of a wired network, with the mobility. This stock closed up 1.9% to $3.68 in Thursday's trading session. Thursday's Range: $3.52-$3.69 52-Week Range: $2.06-$6.96 Thursday's Volume: 90,000 Three-Month Average Volume: 167,439 From a technical perspective, MERU jumped modestly higher here right off some near-term support at $3.50 with lighter-than-average volume. This stock has been trending sideways for the last month, with shares moving between $3.40 on the downside and $3.75 on the upside. Shares of MERU are now starting to move within range of triggering a breakout trade above the upper-end of its recent sideways trading chart pattern. That trade will hit if MERU manages to take out some near-term overhead resistance at $3.75 and then once it clears its 50-day at $3.95 and its 200-day at $4.07 with high volume.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in MERU as long as it's trending above some key near-term support at $3.40, and then once it sustains a move or close above those breakout levels with volume that hits near or above 167,439 shares. If that breakout triggers soon, then MERU will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance levels at $4.75 to $5.33.

TravelCenters LLC (TA)

This company operates and franchises travel centers along the U.S. interstate highway system. Its products and service include diesel fuel, gasoline, truck repair and maintenance services and restaurants. This stock closed up 2.8% to $8.23 a share in Thursday's trading session.

Thursday's Range: $7.92-$8.39 52-Week Range: $4.18-$12.50 Thursday's Volume: 322,000 Three-Month Average Volume: 358,159 From a technical perspective, TA trended modestly higher here right off its 200-day moving average of $8 with decent upside volume. This stock recently gapped down sharply in August from $11.29 to under $8 with heavy downside volume. Following that gap, shares of TA went on to make a new low at $7.06. Shares of TA have now started to rebound sharply off that $7.06 low and it's now quickly moving within range of triggering a near-term breakout trade. That trade will hit if TA manages to take out some near-term overhead resistance at $8.59 to its 50-day at $9.11 with high volume. Traders should now look for long-biased trades in TA as long as it's trending above its 200-day at $8.80 or above more near-term support at $7.50, and then once it sustains a move or close above those breakout levels with volume that hits near or above 358,159 shares. If that breakout hits soon, then TA will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance level at $9.50. Any high-volume move above $9.50 will then give TA a chance to re-fill its previous gap down zone from August that started at $11.29. To see more stocks that are making notable moves higher today, check out the Stocks Under $10 Moving Higher portfolio on Stockpickr.

-- Written by Roberto Pedone in Delafield, Wis.

RELATED LINKS: >>5 Tech Stocks Spiking on Big Volume >>5 Stocks Setting Up to Break Out >>4 Red-Flag Stocks to Sell This Fall

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At the time of publication, author had no positions in stocks mentioned. Roberto Pedone, based out of Delafield, Wis., is an independent trader who focuses on technical analysis for small- and large-cap stocks, options, futures, commodities and currencies. Roberto studied international business at the Milwaukee School of Engineering, and he spent a year overseas studying business in Lubeck, Germany. His work has appeared on financial outlets including CNBC.com and Forbes.com. You can follow Pedone on Twitter at www.twitter.com/zerosum24 or @zerosum24.

Thursday, July 9, 2015

Homebuilder Confidence Still High but Buyer Optimism Wanes

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Homebuilder confidence remained high in September but signs of waning interest from homebuyers are a cause for concern.

The National Association of Homebuilders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index, which measures builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes, had a reading of 58 in September, unchanged from the previous month. [Read: Ex-JPMorgan Traders Could Face 20 Years in Prison]

The index gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations in the next six months as well as their perceptions of traffic of prospective buyers.

A reading over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good rather than poor. While builder confidence has remained steady, many are reporting hesitancy on the part of buyers due to the sharp increase in mortgage rates. "Following a solid run-up in builder confidence over the past year, we are seeing a pause in the momentum as consumers wait to see where interest rates settle and as the headwinds of tight credit, shrinking supplies of lots for development and increasing labor costs continue," noted NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. On Wednesday, the Census Bureau will release housing starts data. Homebuilders are expected to have begun construction on 915,000 homes on an annualized, seasonally adjusted basis in September, according to economists polled by Bloomberg. Builders have actually been slow to ramp up construction despite a shortage of inventory in the market. With the high cost of land, materials and labor, and tight credit conditions, builders have chosen to keep inventory lean and raise prices to boost their margins. But with buyer demand waning, homebuilders may have to reconsider their recent price hikes. [Read: Investment Ideas From Day 1 of the NY Value Investing Congress] Meanwhile, construction activity still is well below normal, according to Trulia's Jed Kolko. That's because the vacancy rate nationally is 10.3%, close to its recession-era peak. There isn't a shortage of housing, just a shortage of homes for sale. Also, household formation at the rate of 746,000 annually is also half of what is considered normal. Household formation and construction won't go back to normal unless the jobs market booms and young adults begin to re-enter the housing market.

Housing has recovered over the past year on low rates and a sharp decline in inventory. With higher rates and increasing inventory, home price gains are expected to slow.

For the recovery to continue, the economy has to continue to expand and create more jobs, or in the absence of that credit would have to loosen.

-- Written by Shanthi Bharatwaj New York.

>Contact by Email. Follow @shavenk

Disclosure: TheStreet's editorial policy prohibits staff editors and reporters from holding positions in any individual stocks.

Thursday, June 18, 2015

Brokers Willing to Pay Up for Fiduciary Standard: SIFMA

A uniform fiduciary standard implemented by the Securities and Exchange Commission would hit brokers with $8 million in new compliance costs, according to the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association.

Updating disclosure documents would cost $3 million, and the initial build-out of compliance systems and training would cost another $5 million, said SIFMA, which represents banks, securities firms and asset managers.

But Ira Hammerman, SIFMA’s senior managing director and general counsel, told AdvisorOne on Monday that BDs “are generally willing to incur” the above mentioned additional compliance costs “in order to arrive at a new fiduciary standard.”

The Financial Planning Coalition of advisory industry trade groups argues that advisors at BDs who deliver advice under a fiduciary standard experience stronger asset growth, and that the conversion of fee-based brokerage accounts to fiduciary, nondiscretionary advisory accounts would impose “little if any additional cost or burden.”

Charles Schwab, however, flipped the scenario around, telling the SEC in its comment letter what it would cost for registered investment advisors to comply with BD rules should the agency decide to include “harmonizing” BD and advisor rules in its fiduciary rule proposal.

Depending on how broadly the commission would apply “harmonized rules — whether to some or all RIAs,” harmonized rules could cost the RIA industry a whopping $1 billion, Christopher Gilkerson, Schwab’s senior vice president and deputy general counsel, told the SEC.

SIFMA, Schwab and the coalition members — which include the Financial Planning Association, the National Association of Personal Financial Advisors and the CFP Board — expressed their views in comment letters to the SEC as part of the agency’s March 1 request for information on the costs and benefits of a uniform fiduciary standard. The comment period ended July 5.

Hammerman told the SEC that “SIFMA remains strongly supportive of a uniform fiduciary standard for broker-dealers and investment advisors when providing personalized investment advice about securities to individual retail clients.”

SIFMA surveyed 18 of its member firms — 12 large BDs and six regional ones — to arrive at the $8 million in additional compliance costs under a fiduciary standard. SIFMA said that it focused on two specific areas where its members believe they would be hit hard by a fiduciary rule — the costs of developing and maintaining a disclosure form similar to Form ADV Part 2A, and the costs of developing and maintaining new supervisory systems, procedures and training programs to implement the new standard.

SIFMA noted in its comment letter that as the SEC has not issued a “concrete” fiduciary proposal yet, “it is not possible to adequately identify and estimate all the costs of establishing a uniform fiduciary standard.”

The coalition used Cerulli Associates data from 2007 to back up its argument that the conversion of non-fiduciary, fee-based brokerage accounts to fiduciary, nondiscretionary advisory accounts would impose “little if any additional cost or burden.” /* .premium-promo { border: 1px solid #ddd; padding: 10px; margin: 0 10px 10px 0; width: 200px; float: left; } .premium-promo li, .premium-promo ul { list-style-type: none; margin: 0; padding: 0; } .premium-promo li { margin: 0 0 10px; padding: 0 0 10px; border-bottom: 1px dotted #ddd; } .premium-promo h3 { text-transform: uppercase; font-size: 11px; } .premium-promo h4 { font-size: 16px; } .premium-promo a { text-decoration: none !important; } .premium-promo .btn { background: #0069a1; border-radius: 4px; display: inline-block; padding: 5px 10px; clear: both; color: #fff; font-weight: bold; } .premium-promo .btn:hover { background: #034c92; } */ The coalition notes that Cerulli found that, even after the broad market declines of 2008, the client assets in nondiscretionary advisory accounts rose by almost 75% from approximately $329.6 billion at the end of the conversion process in 2007 to $574 billion in the third quarter of 2012.

Meanwhile, the coalition writes, “the level of fees charged to customers for this service model at the major national firms has stayed flat or decreased since 2007. In sum, the experience of converting fee-based (non-fiduciary) brokerage accounts to nondiscretionary advisory (fiduciary) accounts demonstrates that the expense of operating under a fiduciary model has not prevented the number of accounts and level of assets in those accounts from continuing to grow.”

Of the 800 advisors who responded to Schwab’s survey, the respondents reported that harmonizing advisor and BD rules in the areas of licensing, registration and continuing education would have the greatest burden, followed by books and records and supervision requirements, with duty of care coming in last.

The coalition also told the SEC to hold off on harmonizing BD and advisor rules until it adopts a fiduciary rule, as the two issues are “conceptually distinct” and should be analyzed on their “own merits.” While a fiduciary standard of care is “a relatively simple concept to adopt and apply and will have immediate benefits to customers,” harmonization “is a more time-consuming process requiring the comparison and evaluation of many different rules.”

---

Check out SEC Gets an Earful From Advisors on Fiduciary Standard.

Wednesday, June 17, 2015

July 8: Earnings in the Limelight - Economic Highlights

Friday's strong jobs report shed a positive light on the labor market and likely increased the odds of Fed 'tapering' in the coming months. The bond market's move towards pricing in such an outcome has thankfully not become a problem for the stock market, at least not yet. We will know more later this week as minutes of the last FOMC meeting get released. But at this stage, the stock market is taking the 100 basis point jump in benchmark yields since early May in the stride.

Thankfully for us, the focus shifts from the Fed this week to the 2013 Q2 earnings season with the earnings reports from Alcoa (AA) later today and Yum Brands (YUM), J.P. Morgan (JPM) and Wells Fargo (WFC) later this week. Expectations remain low enough that companies wouldn't face much difficulty coming ahead of them. About two-thirds of companies beat earnings expectations in a typical quarter any way and there is no reason to think that the Q2 earnings season will be any different. My sense is that earnings growth and earnings surprises in the Q2 reporting cycle would be along the lines of what we saw in Q1.

Current expectations are for +0.4% growth in total earnings in Q2, down from +3.9% in early April, while total S&P 500 earnings increased by +2.8% in Q1. Nine of the 16 Zacks sectors are expected to show negative earnings growth in Q2. The growth picture in is even more underwhelming when Finance is excluded from the data. Outside of Finance, total earnings for the S&P 500 would be down -3.2% in Q2.

But even more significant than growth rates and surprises will be guidance. Guidance is always important, but it will likely be far more important this time around given the elevated expectations for the second half of the year. Total earnings are expected to be up +5.1% in 2013 Q3 and by +11.7% in Q4, giving us a second-half growth pace of +9.2% from the same period the year before, which comes after +2.7% earnings growth in the first half. Importantly, the growth expectations for the sec! ond half are not due to easy comparisons – the level of total earnings expected in 2013 Q3 and Q4 represent new all-time high quarterly records.

My sense is that estimates need to come down in a big way. The market hasn't cared much in the recent past about negative revisions as aggregate earnings estimates have been coming down for over a year now. But if we are entering a post-QE world, as I believe we are, then it will likely be difficult to overlook negative earnings estimate revisions going forward. How the market responds to negative guidance over and the resulting negative revisions will tell us a lot about what to expect going forward.

Sunday, June 14, 2015

Why Changyou Shares Got Crushed

Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.

What: Shares of Chinese online gaming operator Changyou.com (NASDAQ: CYOU  ) plummeted 19% today after its quarterly results and outlook disappointed Wall Street.

So what: The stock has soared over the past year on a string of better-than-expected quarters, but today's Q2 revenue miss -- $182.4 million versus the average estimate of $183.4 million -- coupled with downbeat guidance for the Q3 is forcing Mr. Market to quickly sober up. And while Changyou's profit of $75.2 million managed to top estimates, gross margin during the quarter slipped 100 basis points, suggesting that the super-high earnings growth is getting more expensive to sustain.   

Now what: Management now sees third-quarter EPS of $1.33-$1.38 on revenue of $180 million-$186 million, well below the consensus of $1.48 and $191 million. "With an array of new games planned for the PC, Web and mobile and the capabilities we have built over the years in game development, operation, marketing and distribution, we believe we are positioned to succeed over the long-term," CEO Tao Wang reassured investors. More important, with the stock now off about 20% from its 52-week highs and trading at a forward P/E of around 6, Mr. Market might finally be providing a window to buy into that bullishness.

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Wednesday, June 10, 2015

Did Disney Just Kill 3-D TV?

With Walt Disney's (NYSE: DIS  ) ESPN unit announcing that it will shut down its 3-D production unit at the end of the year because of the cost and a lack of interest from customers, does this mean the 3-D TV business has failed?

Well, the answer is complicated.

Movie theaters that offer the 3-D experience have seen revenues decline since Avatar came out in 2010. While that movie brought the technology to the forefront and got a lot of people talking, a number of big-screen directors have since opted to not shoot their films in 3-D. As my colleague Travis Hoium pointed out earlier in the week, three out of the top four films last year weren't shot in 3-D. When customers aren't being fed the experience at the box office, they don't know how good it is and therefore don't know they should have it at home.

Furthermore, most Americans have probably upgraded their TVs in the past few years, with flat-screen TVs taking off around 2005 and 2006 and HDTVs following shortly after. So getting a few additional channels or movies in 3-D probably doesn't justify the expense of upgrading again. The recession certainly didn't help, either.

While I don't think 3-D is dead, I don't believe the technology is going to take the living room by storm anytime soon, and Disney apparently agrees. With live sports as a potential selling point for a lot of people who might have been thinking about going 3-D, Disney's decision to cut the cord will probably slow the growth of 3-D TVs even more.

As for Disney, this is probably a good move. Disney's stock has performed wonderfully year to date, up more than 28%, so some investors may be wondering why ESPN is cutting the 3-D unit, or why it recently announced that it's laying off employees in an effort to cut costs. After all, the stock has outperformed the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI  ) by 13.34% this year.

But Disney's management knows that for the company to continue to perform at a high level, it must always be looking for ways grow revenue, save money, and add value. In other words, Disney's recent cuts may just be an example of why the stock has performed so well -- even if it means 3-D sports won't be coming to your living room anytime soon.

It's easy to forget that Walt Disney is more than just the House of Mouse. True, Disney amusement parks around the world hosted more than 121 million guests in 2011. But from its vast catalog of characters to its monster collection of media networks, much of Disney's allure for investors lies in its diversity, and The Motley Fool's premium research report lays out the case for investing in Disney today. This report includes the key items investors must watch as well as the opportunities and threats the company faces going forward. So don't miss out -- simply click here now to claim your copy today.

Tuesday, June 9, 2015

AFC Enterprises Beats on Revenue, Matches Expectations on EPS

AFC Enterprises (Nasdaq: AFCE  ) reported earnings on May 29. Here are the numbers you need to know.

The 10-second takeaway
For the quarter ended April 21 (Q1), AFC Enterprises beat expectations on revenues and met expectations on earnings per share.

Compared to the prior-year quarter, revenue increased. GAAP earnings per share increased significantly.

Gross margins grew, operating margins dropped, net margins increased.

Revenue details
AFC Enterprises recorded revenue of $60.4 million. The three analysts polled by S&P Capital IQ foresaw revenue of $59.1 million on the same basis. GAAP reported sales were 14% higher than the prior-year quarter's $52.8 million.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Dollar amounts in millions. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

EPS details
EPS came in at $0.40. The four earnings estimates compiled by S&P Capital IQ averaged $0.40 per share. GAAP EPS of $0.40 for Q1 were 18% higher than the prior-year quarter's $0.34 per share.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

Margin details
For the quarter, gross margin was 68.2%, 20 basis points better than the prior-year quarter. Operating margin was 26.8%, 10 basis points worse than the prior-year quarter. Net margin was 15.9%, 20 basis points better than the prior-year quarter. (Margins calculated in GAAP terms.)

Looking ahead
Next quarter's average estimate for revenue is $45.3 million. On the bottom line, the average EPS estimate is $0.31.

Next year's average estimate for revenue is $200.9 million. The average EPS estimate is $1.39.

Investor sentiment
The stock has a three-star rating (out of five) at Motley Fool CAPS, with 73 members out of 90 rating the stock outperform, and 17 members rating it underperform. Among 25 CAPS All-Star picks (recommendations by the highest-ranked CAPS members), 21 give AFC Enterprises a green thumbs-up, and four give it a red thumbs-down.

Of Wall Street recommendations tracked by S&P Capital IQ, the average opinion on AFC Enterprises is outperform, with an average price target of $36.38.

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Add AFC Enterprises to My Watchlist.

Monday, June 8, 2015

How Will Silvercorp Metals Overcome Silver's Decline?

On Wednesday, Silvercorp Metals (NYSE: SVM  ) will release its latest quarterly results. The key to making smart investment decisions on stocks reporting earnings is to anticipate how they'll do before they announce results, leaving you fully prepared to respond quickly to whatever inevitable surprises arise. That way, you'll be less likely to make an uninformed knee-jerk reaction to news that turns out to be exactly the wrong move.

Silvercorp Metals was already making its investors suffer before April's big swoon for the gold and silver markets. Now, narrowing profit margins due to low silver prices could further squeeze silver miners and eventually threaten their profitability. Let's take an early look at what's been happening with Silvercorp Metals over the past quarter and what we're likely to see in its quarterly report.

Stats on Silvercorp Metals

Analyst EPS Estimate

$0.04

Change From Year-Ago EPS

(33%)

Revenue Estimate

$52.21 million

Change From Year-Ago Revenue

18%

Earnings Beats in Past 4 Quarters

1

Source: Yahoo! Finance.

Can Silvercorp Metals boost its earnings?
Analysts have gotten a lot more nervous about Silvercorp Metals in recent months, cutting their earnings estimates for the just-ended quarter by $0.02. But they see the real damage coming in the next fiscal year, having slashed their fiscal 2014 estimates by nearly half, and that's largely responsible for the 40% plunge in the stock since mid-February.

We've already gotten a sense of what Silvercorp expects in its future results, as the company issued guidance for its fiscal 2014 year back in February. With increases in ore production at the Canadian company's Chinese mines to 1.5 million tons, Silvercorp hopes to produce 6.7 million ounces of silver, 20,800 ounces of gold, and almost 105 million pounds of lead and zinc, among other base metals and byproducts.

Yet the big problem that lies ahead for Silvercorp is the plunge in commodities that occurred in April. Although that won't get reflected in Wednesday's numbers, they could definitely play a big part in its future guidance going forward. Fortunately, Silvercorp's costs are relatively low, with the company actually posting negative cash costs in the Ying Mining District in its most recent quarter, but nevertheless, even it can't avoid the impact of falling market prices for its products.

If the plunge persists, then it could eventually pressure Silvercorp to cut its dividend. Silver Wheaton (NYSE: SLW  ) reduced its payout from $0.14 to $0.12 per share in its most recent quarter, noting the decline in cash flow that falling silver prices produced as the main contributing factor in the decision. Still, Pan American Silver (NASDAQ: PAAS  ) kept its dividend steady earlier this month, and even with lower projected earnings in light of silver's drop, it has ample profits to cover its dividend, and Silvercorp appears to have the same advantage.

In Silvercorp's quarterly report, watch closely for signs that lower prices might spur the company to change its planned capital expenditures or other critical business functions. If Silvercorp starts battening down the hatches with cost cuts, it could be a sign that the crash in commodities is more serious than some investors currently believe.

If you are looking for a company whose success is determined by the metals market, but without involving itself in the risks of physically mining the metals, then Silver Wheaton provides a unique play on the future of silver. Silver Wheaton chooses to finance the mining of silver; it has grown sales and net income every year since 2008, and also has increased competitive advantages over its limited peer group. To learn more about Silver Wheaton, click here now to access The Motley Fool's premium research report on the company.

Click here to add Silvercorp Metals to My Watchlist, which can find all of our Foolish analysis on it and all your other stocks.

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Thursday, June 4, 2015

Marking the Way for Alzheimer's Drugs

Editor's note: An earlier version of this article incorrectly stated that Eli Lilly purchased two companies from Siemens. The actual transaction was for two tracers used in detecting tau tangles. The video also misidentifies a collaboration between Eli Lilly and General Electric for similar diagnostic products. GE Healthcare is developing a tau tangle imaging test that is independent of Eli Lilly. The Fool regrets the error.

In this video, health care analyst David Williamson discusses Eli Lilly's  (NYSE: LLY  )  recent purchase of two imaging tracers from German conglomerate Siemens. The big pharma currently has Amyvid approved, which detects amyloid brain plaques. Like Amyvid, Eli Lilly is hoping that these tau tangle diagnostics will help both with detection and potentially serve as markers for treatment. Watch and find out how the treatment for Alzheimer's disease is evolving and some potentially groundbreaking drugs in the pipeline.

Is Eli Lilly a buy or sell?
With two of its top three drugs poised to lose patent protection this year, is Eli Lilly a dividend stock headed nowhere fast? In a new premium report, The Motley Fool's senior pharmaceuticals analyst breaks down all of Lilly's moving parts, including an in-depth analysis of the company's must-know opportunities, and reasons to buy and sell today. To find out more, click here to claim your copy today.

Wednesday, June 3, 2015

How to Stay Informed About Netflix Stock News

Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX  ) CEO Reed Hastings got into hot water last summer. A couple of his personal Facebook (NASDAQ: FB  ) updates contained information that some considered to be of material interest to shareholders. Indeed, one update on sky-high streaming hours certainly moved the Netflix stock.

Some thought this was an inappropriate use of social media. An SEC investigation was started, not to mention several class action lawsuits. Tweets and Facebook posts shouldn't be required reading for investors! These outlets have no business affecting Netflix share prices!

The storm has mostly blown over. The SEC dropped its investigation last week, but also provided Netflix with guidelines on what social media is kosher or not for business disclosures. And last night, Netflix provided a handy list to keep investors informed -- published as an 8-K SEC filing, just to be sure.

In this filing, Netflix notes that material information will typically be found in all the usual channels:

Its investor relations site

SEC filings

Press releases

Public conference calls and webcasts

But that's no longer all. A truly informed Netflix investor should also keep tabs on these newfangled potential news outlets:

The Netflix blog

The Netflix tech blog

The company's Facebook page

Its official Twitter feed

And of course, Reed Hastings' Facebook page, which started this whole spectacle.

For what it's worth, I've been tracking all of these channels for years. It just seems appropriate for a Netflix shareholder who frequently writes about the company, don't you think? SEC rules have finally caught up to reality.

As long as this list is, I'm actually still missing a few seemingly obvious outlets. Wouldn't it make sense to include the business-oriented LinkedIn (NYSE: LNKD  ) service? Netflix may not post a lot of original articles there, but you can often find out about promotions and firings from that public source.

And speaking of jobs, you can often draw business conclusions from Netflix's online job postings (at Netflix and LinkedIn, though neither page is included in the "essential reading" list above). For example, the company is hiring lots of content acquisition specialists in Latin America right now. Should we expect heavy content investments and a local marketing push to follow?

I think we should expect similar lists from many other companies, especially in the tech and media spheres. Netflix is far from the only business to make use of modern communications channels, and investment-grade information could easily slip into such channels by mistake. So why not make it official?

That would be a huge personal victory for Hastings, who also serves on Facebook's board of directors. Expanding and legitimizing that service for new uses, like market-moving news postings, would certainly be in Facebook's best interest.

And staying out of legal and regulatory trouble when juicy tidbits are dropped into Twitter or Facebook is most definitely good for Netflix and its stock. Well played, Mr. Hastings.

Another source of Netflix news
The Motley Fool has released a premium report on Netflix. Inside, you'll learn about the key opportunities and risks facing the company, as well as reasons to buy or sell the stock. The report includes a full year of updates to cover critical new developments, so make sure to click here and claim a copy today.

Tuesday, June 2, 2015

Tesla Rising: ‘Model 3′ for Mass Market On Tap, Says Global Equities

As noted earlier today by Ben in this space, Tesla (TSLA) shares got a boost from founder Elon Musk having tweeted something mysterious about the letter “D.”

Global Equities Research‘s Trip Chowdhry, who Ben noted on Monday opined that a four-wheel drive model of the “Model S” sedan may be introduced within the next three months, today returns with more Tesla prognostications.

Writes Chowdhry, three new unveilings can be expected from Tesla on October 9th, next Thursday.

He contends a “mass market” car, the “Model 3,” will be unveiled, citing as reasons:

We also know, Franz, Tesla Chief Designer, spends almost 90% of his time in LA Design Center; Now we know that Tesla’s Oct’9 Event is being held at Tesla’s LA Design Center and “NOT” in Palo Alto or Fremont; There are still 3 potential investors in GigaFactory – LG Chem, Sanyo and Apple – and investment from these entities will be easier, if TSLA can show the mass market car Model 3, that will need the GigaFactory; All the above data points taken together, indicates that it is very likely that Tesla will unveil the Model 3, the mass market Tesla car.

In addition, Chowdhry anticipates the all-wheel drive Model S, noting “we have seen this car on HWY 92 and have also spoken to the Driver.”

And lastly, Model S will add what’s known as “semi-autonomous driver-assistance system,” or SADAS, which, he contends, will use cameras from sensor maker MobileEye (MBLY).

Tesla shares today rose $3.79, or 1.5%, to close at $255.21. MobileEye stock rose $2.70, almost 5%, today, to close at $57.70.

Update: In related news, Bloomberg‘s Ian King and Keith Naughton this evening write that the October 9th event will feature Tesla’s “first foray toward automated driving with a suite of new high-tech features,” citing an unnamed source.

 

Monday, June 1, 2015

Solid Motor Vehicle Sales and Hot Twitter News Help Stocks to Fresh Records

Soccer can be slow. And so is the week before July, as the nation saunters through a four-day week. Investors were mainly looking forward to the upcoming jobs news this week (ADP reports June's job numbers Wednesday, but the Labor Department will announce the official number on Thursday). As Wall Street slowly left the office early to catch the U.S. World Cup game, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI  ) managed to jump 129 points Tuesday to reach new record highs.   1. Twitter unveils cool new feature (and new CFO)
You're probably on Instagram right now, but for those of you who enjoy 140-character literature, Twitter (NYSE: TWTR  ) made two major announcements that sent the stock up nearly 3% in after-hours trading on Tuesday.

It was a #OneTwoPunch in the Twittersphere. First, the company unveiled a "Buy Now" button that would add an e-commerce element, allowing you the purchase those kinky Miley Cyrus booty shorts right after she describes them to her nation of followers. The button doesn't officially work yet, but Wall Street expects it to play a major role in the company's plan to become profitable (it isn't yet).

And then Twitter made some serious HR moves. Investors were pumped to see that Anthony Noto, a managing director at Goldman Sachs, will receive 1.5 million shares of Twitter stock and $250,000 in annual salary to become the new CFO. Now-former CFO Mike Gupta is moving over to the "Strategic Investments" division. Awkward.

The takeaway is that while you've been busy slacking off before the July 4 holiday, Twitter has been getting after it like it's heading to an NFL preseason camp. Earlier in the week, Twitter introduced a new ad unit that will let you download third-party apps directly from Twitter's mobile app, and it bought up TapCommerce, a start-up that will better target ads to users.

2. June motor vehicle sales show Americans don't mind recalls
Americans don't care about public twerking, and they apparently don't care about recalls, either. Despite embarrassingly recalling millions of faulty cars recently, the national Motor Vehicle Sales Report for June showed that General Motors (NYSE: GM  ) boasted sales gains last month. Clearly, the connection between broken cars and quality isn't happening in the minds of American consumers, who snatched up over 267,000 GM vehicles in June, up 1% from a year earlier.
 
The Debbie-downer award goes to Ford. The company's sales slipped by 6% after deciding to discount its powerhouse F-series pickup truck line. Ford's (NYSE: F  ) putting its truck-makin' plants on pause later this year to prepare for the next generation of F-150 trucks. That hurts sales in the short term (though idle plant workers get some vacay time), but since the F-150 is the highest-selling vehicle in Amurica, it's worth it the investment.
 
The takeaway is that analysts were expecting overall motor vehicle sales to fall, but they ended up pretty much flat last month. May was a hot sales month after all those winter polar vortexes stopped scaring away consumers, so this was a major confidence boost for investors with exposure to the U.S. auto industry.   As originally published on MarketSnacks.com  

Warren Buffett's worst auto-nightmare (Hint: It's not Tesla)
A major technological shift is happening in the automotive industry. Most people are skeptical about its impact. Warren Buffett isn't one of them. He recently called it a "real threat" to one of his favorite businesses. An executive at Ford called the technology "fantastic." The beauty for investors is that there is an easy way to invest in this megatrend. Click here to access our exclusive report on this stock.

Sunday, May 31, 2015

Slow and steady choices build a credit score

Driving back from the grocery store the other day, I spotted one of those clear-up-your-credit-score-quick signs that dot the corners of major roads.

As eye catching as the brightly colored signs are, of course, grabbing financial advice off the street is one way to pay high fees for something you can find for free. Or you might pay outlandish sums for services that you can do yourself.

The good news for consumers is that extra help regarding credit scores and credit reports is now available from a variety of sources. Unfortunately, many consumers still aren't sure where to look or they don't want to be bothered.

More than half of consumers surveyed — 58% — didn't even know their credit score, according to a report the American Bankers Association released last fall.

Many times, consumers start caring about a score when a lender tells us that we don't qualify for a low rate on a major loan because of a low score. Unlike what signs on the road imply, there isn't a quick fix for boosting a credit score. But educational information can offer a realistic plan of attack.

"Everybody wants the 'What Next?' button," said Ian Cohen, CEO of Credit.com.

So Credit.com has new "personalized action plans" to help consumers figure out what they can do to raise their credit scores. One strategy? Start paying more than the minimum required payment on credit cards to lead to lower balances and possibly raise the score.

Detroit-based Quizzle.com, a provider of free credit reports and scores, offers free tools that used to be part of a premium package. No purchase or credit card is required.

"We provide credit comparison, credit trending, a score analysis, and a credit time line that shows how your personal credit was built over time," said Todd Albery, CEO of Quizzle.

In January, Quizzle started a partnership with Equifax, Vantage Score and ReasonCode.org. Now, Quizzle offers a completely free credit report from Equifax and a Vantage 3.0 Credit Score.

"A sc! ore alone does not give consumers a full understanding of their credit health," Albery said. And that's where online advice can help.

Albery compares seeing one's credit score to being in high school and finding out you got a 76% on a geometry test. But what if you never saw what questions you got wrong on the actual test? How would you find ways to improve?

Finding out your credit score wasn't always as easy or simply as free as seeing a grade on a test. Now, though, some consumers are finding access to free credit scores via their credit card statements and online accounts, too.

Discover rolled out free, three-digit FICO scores on monthly statements for its card members after a test run last year. Barclays is offering free FICO scores to its cardholders, too, via their online accounts.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is turning up the heat on card issuers to release more credit score information.

The push for free credit scores is leading some online outfits to boost their offerings, as well.

Cohen, of Credit.com, said the goal of the personal action plan is to help consumers solve real problems by learning strategies in as few clicks as possible.

Cohen walked me through the new program online and showed how a consumer can easily slide gadgets on the computer screen to figure out what's driving down their score. Is it their payment history? High debt? Mix of accounts?

"It's enough to get people to act," Cohen said.

Sometimes, the strategy could involve taking steps to pay down more credit card debt and other debt to drive up the score.

Take a consumer who owes $2,562 on their credit card bills. It might not seem like a horrible amount of credit card debt. But if the credit limits on those cards is around $6,000 all that debt is driving down the score. The consumer in this example is using nearly 43% of their available credit — when a better score could be reached if one used only 10% of available credit.

Paying an extra $175 ! to $300 a! month toward that credit card balance could drive up some scores 20 points to 35 points soon.

Other consumers could end up being warned that they don't want to apply for more credit right now. They might want an on-the-spot discount in a store but they could be driving up the cost of their overall borrowing on other loans because they've applied for too much credit lately.

Driving a credit score higher, of course, can lead to lower interest rates when one does take out a loan and then push down the cost of borrowing over the long run.

Credit.com notes that even a so-so credit score can cost some consumers more than $103,000 in extra financing costs over a lifetime.

"The data we pull on you is all yours. Here take it," Cohen said.

Follow Susan Tompor on Twitter @Tompor.

Thursday, May 28, 2015

Higher tax rates fail to dent economic growth

taxes, april 15, obama, deficit, tax increases, budget deficit Bloomberg News

As the political fight over raising taxes for high-income Americans fades away, so are predictions for negative economic fallout.

The bill for President Barack Obama's 2013 tax increases comes due April 15, and the first boost in marginal income rates in 20 years is already reducing the U.S. budget deficit without tipping the economy into recession.

“In advance one always hears the squeals of the oxen who would like everyone to think they are about to be gored,” said James Galbraith, an economist at the University of Texas at Austin. “Then it turns out that they are only nicked, and life goes on.”

(Don't miss: 6 last-minute tax filing tips)

The U.S. government is projected to collect more than $3 trillion for the first time in the fiscal year ending Sept. 30, a 9.2% increase over last year, according to the Congressional Budget Office. CBO forecasts another 9% rise in 2015 and estimates that more than half of the increases in revenue stem from tax law changes.

Because of tax increases, spending cuts and economic growth, the federal budget deficit is projected to be 3% of gross domestic product this year. That's less than half its 2012 level and the smallest budget deficit since 2007.

In January 2013, just after President George W. Bush's tax cuts expired, Congress reset the top marginal income tax rate at 39.6%, the same level it reached under President Bill Clinton.

ADDITIONAL LEVIES

High-income taxpayers face additional levies, effective in 2013, to help pay for Mr. Obama's health-care plan. That means those at the very top of the U.S. income scale face higher marginal tax rates than at any time since 1986.

The increases started generating revenue for the government in late 2012, when taxpayers began accelerating capital gains and bonus income to avoid paying at the higher rates.

The high-income tax increase sapped 0.25 percentage points from GDP in 2013, estimates Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics Inc. in West Chester, Pa. That slight economic drag, he said, shouldn't continue.

“For the most part, by summertime, the negative effects on the economy will have abated,” he said. “Most of the pain has been felt.”

Even congressional Republicans, who warned that the tax increases would destroy jobs, aren't making a serious push to repeal them. They're acting as though the new tax rates and increased take for the U.S. government are here to stay, even if they don't like it.

House Republicans' budget plan and draft tax-code revamp call for reshuffling the tax system in ways that would reduce top rates without reducing the amount of money the! government collects. Also, the tax plan was designed so it wouldn't cut the share of taxes paid by top earners.

Senate Republicans didn't include a major rollback of Mr. Obama's tax increases in their latest job-creation plan, instead focusing on repealing the 2010 health-care law and blocking regulations that would limit energy production.

That's a concession to political reality, said Orrin Hatch of Utah, the top Republican on the Senate Finance Committee.

“We know we can't do it with Democrats in control of the Senate,” he said, “so it's going to be a feckless effort.”

UNDOING CUTS

It took Mr. Obama two presidential campaigns, four years in office and a past-the-wire legislative fight at the end of 2012 to undo a fraction of the tax cuts secured by his predecessor. Mr. Obama prevailed two years after he signed a temporary extension of the Bush tax cuts.

The result set the top marginal income tax at 39.6%, up from 35%, starting at $450,000 of taxable income for married couples and $400,000 for individuals in 2013. The top basic rate on capital gains and dividends rose to 20% from 15%.

Congress also reinstated limits on itemized deductions and personal exemptions for top earners. Those affect married couples with adjusted gross income of more than $300,000 and individuals with income of more than $250,000.

On top of all that, tax increases for the highest earners from the 2010 Affordable Care Act took effect in 2013. That amounts to a 3.8% tax on net investment income and a 0.9% tax on wages. Those taxes start at $250,000 of annual income for married couples and $200,000 for individuals.

A married couple with about $915,000 in annual income will pay $277,426 in payroll and income taxes for 2013, up 12% from 2012. That's according to an example created by the Tax Policy Center in Washington.

The people affected by the tax increases include corporate executives, lawyers, doctors and people who report their business profits on their individual tax returns.

Th! e tax inc! rease constrains cash flow for the most successful small businesses, especially those with limited access to credit, and it's one reason why the economic recovery has been slow, said Douglas Holtz-Eakin, a former director of the Congressional Budget Office.

“It would have been a good idea to get everyone back to work before you decided to redistribute the income,” he said. “You've raised the marginal tax on the return to both high-income labor and high-income saving and in

Wednesday, May 27, 2015

5 Tech Stocks to Trade for Gains This Week

BALTIMORE (Stockpickr) -- After a long period of stock market underperformance, the tech sector is starting to look exciting for investors again. And that's creating some big opportunities in tech stocks this week.

>>5 Rocket Stocks to Buy for a Market Bounce

Typically, technology sector outperformance is synonymous with bull markets. But not this one. Since last June, the S&P 500 has moved 10.3% higher, while the tech sector has only managed to move the needle 4.5%. By and large, technology names haven't fully participated in this rally.

But if the trading setups in big tech names are any indication, they could be about to make up for lost time. Today, we'll take a technical look at five of them.

>>5 Stocks Poised for Breakouts

For the unfamiliar, technical analysis is a way for investors to quantify qualitative factors, such as investor psychology, based on a stock's price action and trends. Once the domain of cloistered trading teams on Wall Street, technicals can help top traders make consistently profitable trades and can aid fundamental investors in better planning their stock execution.

Without further ado, let's take a look at five technical setups worth trading now.

Micron Technology


First up is Micron Technology (MU), a name that's been one of the tech sector's shining momentum stars for the last year and change. Shares of MU have more than tripled in the last 12 months -- and this stock could have even further to go thanks to a bullish setup in shares.

>>2 Tech Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Micron spent the last two months forming an ascending triangle pattern, a bullish price setup that was formed by horizontal resistance above shares at $24 and uptrending support to the downside. Basically, as MU bounced in between those two technical price levels, it was getting squeezed closer and closer to a breakout above resistance at $24. Taking out $24 was the buy signal in MU -- and it triggered on Friday.

Momentum, measured by 14-day RSI, adds some extra confidence to upside in Micron. The momentum gauge broke its intermediate-term downtrend at the same time MU's shares pushed through $24. Since momentum is a leading indicator of price, that's a good sign for bulls.

If you decide to jump into MU here, I'd recommend putting a protective stop just below the 50-day moving average.

SunPower


We're seeing the exact same setup in shares of solar power systems maker SunPower (SPWR), except this mid-cap solar name hasn't broken out yet. The breakout comes on a push through resistance at $34. When $34 gets taken out, buying shares becomes a high-probability trade.

>>5 Hated Earnings Stocks You Should Love

Whenever you're looking at any technical price pattern, it's critical to think in terms of those buyers and sellers. Triangles and other pattern names are a good quick way to explain what's going on in a stock, but they're not the reason it's tradable. Instead, it all comes down to supply and demand for shares.

That $34 resistance level is a price where there has been an excess of supply of shares; in other words, it's a place where sellers have been more eager to step in and take gains than buyers have been to buy. That's what makes a breakout above it so significant -- the move means that buyers are finally strong enough to absorb all of the excess supply above that price level.

Wait for the breakout before taking the trade.

InvenSense


It's been a solid year for InvenSense (INVN); the small-cap motion interface device maker has rallied more that 36% in the trailing 12 months. And like the other technology stocks on our list of trading setups, INVN looks well-positioned for even more upside in 2014.

>>3 Huge Stocks to Trade (or Not)

That's because INVN is currently forming a cup and handle pattern, a classic bullish price setup that's formed by a cup-shaped rounding bottom in shares that's followed up by a short-duration channel down. The buy signal comes on a move through the pattern's price ceiling at $21. Shares are pushing up very close to that level in today's session thanks to news that a lingering patent dispute is getting settled.

Like with MU, the 50-day moving average has been a pretty good proxy for support all the way up in shares of InvenSense. It makes sense to keep a protective stop below that level in case this trade loses traction.

Infosys


Forget about the pattern names for a moment -- you don't have to be an expert technical analyst to figure out what's going on in shares of Infosys (INFY), the $32 billion Indian IT outsourcing firm. Instead, a quick glance at the chart is sufficient.

>>4 Stocks Breaking Out on Big Volume

Infosys is currently bouncing higher in an uptrending channel, a price setup that's been in place since all the way back at the start of the summer. From a relative strength standpoint, this name has been holding up exceptionally well over that six-month span, with shares catching a bid on every test of the trend line support level at the bottom of the channel. So with INFY sitting at the bottom of the channel for a sixth time now, it makes sense to buy the bounce.

Waiting to buy off a support bounce makes sense for two big reasons: It's the spot where shares have the furthest to move up before they hit resistance, and it's the spot where the risk is the least (because shares have the least room to move lower before you know you're wrong). Remember, all trend lines do eventually break, but by actually waiting for the bounce to happen first, you're ensuring INFY can actually still catch a bid along that line before you put your money on shares.

Alcatel-Lucent


Last up is Alcatel Lucent (ALU), the $10.5 billion French communications firm that's become a popular trading vehicle in the last couple of years. That huge liquidity in shares of ALU means that it's more likely to be technically obedient -- and considering the bullish setup in shares, that's a very good thing for anyone who owns shares.

Alcatel Lucent is currently forming an inverse head and shoulders pattern, a trading setup that indicates exhaustion among sellers. The pattern is formed by two swing lows that bottom out around the same level (the shoulders), separated by a deeper low (the head). The buy signal comes on a move through the neckline, which is right at $4.60.

So far, this pattern isn't complete -- it hasn't formed a right shoulder yet. But ultimately, for the reasons I mentioned earlier, that doesn't have a big bearing on the trading implications of ALU. If shares can catch a bid above $4.60, I'd be a buyer -- with a tight stop in place, of course. This stock is still a volatile name.

To see this week's trades in action, check out the Technical Setups for the Week portfolio on Stockpickr.

-- Written by Jonas Elmerraji in Baltimore.


RELATED LINKS:



>>5 Toxic Stocks to Sell Now



>>5 Dividend Stocks That Want to Give You a Raise in 2014



>>4 Hot Stocks on Traders' Radars

Follow Stockpickr on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook.

At the time of publication, author had no positions in stocks mentioned.

Jonas Elmerraji, CMT, is a senior market analyst at Agora Financial in Baltimore and a contributor to

TheStreet. Before that, he managed a portfolio of stocks for an investment advisory returned 15% in 2008. He has been featured in Forbes , Investor's Business Daily, and on CNBC.com. Jonas holds a degree in financial economics from UMBC and the Chartered Market Technician designation.

Follow Jonas on Twitter @JonasElmerraji


Monday, May 25, 2015

Apple's Tortured Relationship with the Enterprise

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- After the desktop publishing bonanza of the late 1980s that was launched by the early Macs and laser printers, Apple (AAPL) sought to further develop its position in the business world.

But as history tells it, a mistake by CEO John Sculley opened the door to Microsoft's (MSFT) Windows. By 1995, Microsoft was briskly improving its control of the enterprise with, after some false starts, Windows 95. At the time, the casual and damaging consensus was that Windows 95 was "just as good as a Mac," and by early 1996 Apple was foundering.

This is not the place to retell the story of Steve Jobs's return. It's been superbly told by many others, in book-length form. What I do want to do, however, is relate some of the interesting observations I encountered from my own experience because they shed light on Apple's topsy-turvey relationship with the enterprise over the years, especially since 2000.

CIO Encounters

When I worked for Apple in Federal sales, starting in 2003, I was assigned to sell into the Federally Funded R&D Centers. I met with almost every CIO of those organizations, and they were generally in the Microsoft camp. Microsoft products were designed for the enterprise from top to bottom. Microsoft understood the business needs of the enterprise and government and "checked the boxes" for the CIO's needs. So firmly entrenched was Microsoft that, even when confronted with a superior, more secure UNIX OS, called Mac OS X, they generally declined. That's because convincing one person in an organization, even a CIO, won't turn the ship around. Plus, an OS is just a point solution. The whole suite of business services, such as the Microsoft Exchange Server, was more critical to a business in their view. Finally, Macs being the very best were too expensive, and every business wanted the cheapest possible hardware for its cubicle dwellers. Of course, I had champions in some of those agencies, but by and large if an organization was already Mac-friendly, and they were few, sales were brisk. Otherwise, it was an uphill battle. Organizations don't change unless there's a catastrophe. (And in some cases, there were some major security events with Windows XP that earned Apple important customers.) But those were small battles, not the larger war.

Stock quotes in this article: AAPL, MSFT 

In October, 2001 Apple launched the iPod. I was in the room when Steve Jobs pulled the first iPod out of his pocket and gleamed at us. This was a new beginning. From that day on, Apple was able to get on the consumer bandwagon and appeal to individual purchase authority. If a product were very cool and well made and simple and fun, out came the individual's credit card. That has been Apple's mantra and key to success ever since.

Back to the enterprise. When it came to selling Macs of any kind, Apple was, in my impression, carefully treading so that it could dance its own dance. What was at stake was innovation. By that I mean that businesses and government can be plodding -- and demanding all at the same time.

While Microsoft catered to those businesses, Apple knew that it had to move relentlessly forward with technology in order to claim that it makes the very best products. Today, we need only look at the organizations still using Windows XP, even though Microsoft and the U.S. government have pleaded with them to leave that 14-year-old OS behind.

The Influence of Steve Jobs

Very often, the Apple federal and enterprise sales teams would look to the charisma and influence of Jobs to inspire a customer in special executive briefings on the Apple campus. These were customers critical to Apple's business sales. Sometimes it worked very well, but there were times when Jobs declined to intervene with his influence. It's possible he sensed that a particular technical area was unwise for Apple to pursue, like supercomputing and compute clusters. Plus, there were probably times when he was vey focused on his pet projects, like the iPad and iPhone, and he felt that if his sales team were really, really good, they could close the deal without him.

Finally, as I mentioned above, there's always that enterprise demon -- businesses and government want stability and long-term commitments. That's something Apple couldn't engage in if it were to stay in the business of radical advances in consumer technology. Apple's approach has generally been to put great products out there while moving forward briskly. If an organization embraces those Apple products, all's well. But if an organization thinks it can obtain concessions from Apple by making high-value purchases, that generally hasn't worked out well. All this explains why Apple pursues the enterprise on its own terms and why there are organizations that embrace Apple and those that consider Apple products and services (or lack thereof) unsatisfactory for their broad enterprise needs.

Stock quotes in this article: AAPL, MSFT 

There was a time in the early days of [Mac] OS X (2001-2005) when the security situation was a nightmare with its competition, Windows XP. If perhaps Jobs had gone all out, at every opportunity, to sway those organizations besieged with Windows viruses, maybe things would have been different.

But even when faced with security calamities, the approach was not to change platforms. Instead, it was for Microsoft to fix the problems, and the company pretty much did that with Vista and Windows 7. For some very personal history on the opportunities Apple may have missed, see, for example, Could Apple have been even more successful?

The Bottom Line

Today, it seems like a simple matter to suggest that if only Apple tried harder, it could generate much more Mac revenue in business and government. But the fact is, Apple has morphed into a very successful consumer electronics company. Enterprise sales are sought and won daily, and NASA is a major Apple customer. But Apple is always following its own vision, advancing the state-of the-art briskly, and asking its enterprise customers to be on that ride with them.

Now, in the post-PC era, with drastic reductions in PC sales and most consumer and enterprise customers finding that the classic tablet, conceived by Apple in the iPad, meets their needs, Apple's forward-looking vision has been vindicated. Try as Microsoft might, the Surface tablets are not the future whereas Apple has significant iPad and iPhone penetration in the enterprise. Before the iPhone and iPad, it was a rocky ride for Apple's Mac in the PC world. But the decision to race into the future with the iPhone and iPad looks to have paid off.


At the time of publication the author had no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Follow @jmartellaro This article represents the opinion of a contributor and not necessarily that of TheStreet or its editorial staff.

Stock quotes in this article: AAPL, MSFT  John Martellaro was born at an early age and began writing about computers soon after that. He is a former U.S. Air Force officer and has worked for NASA, White Sands Missile Range, Lockheed Martin Astronautics, the Oak Ridge National Laboratory and Apple. At Apple he worked as a Senior Marketing Manager, a Federal Account Executive and a High Performance Computing manager. John is currently the Senior Editor for Analysis and Reviews at The Mac Observer. His interests include skiing, chess, science fiction and astronomy.

Sunday, May 24, 2015

Sliding Auto Sales Kill the General Motors Rally

Remember when everyone loved General Motors (GM) and were disappointed with Ford (F)? That’s so 2013.

Here’s a chart of showing the price of General Motors’ stock divided by Ford’s during the past year.

 

But all positivity around General Motors has vanished today following its announcement of last month’s auto sales. General Motors reported that December sales slide 6.3%, well below the consensus estimate for a 1.5% increase. Ford missed forecasts too–it reported a gain of 1.7%, below the consensus of a 4.3% increase–but at least it was a gain.

RBC Capital Markets’ Joe Spak says investors should use weakness in General Motors to buy its shares, but they seem a lot more comfortable with Ford. General Motors’ shares have dropped 3.2% to $39.65 at 12:29 p.m.–while Ford has gained 0.6% to $15.53. Toyota Motor (TM) has dropped 0.5% to $120.05 and Honda Motor (HMC) is off 0.3% at $40.457.

Wednesday, May 20, 2015

Chestnuts make roaring comeback

Chestnuts still roast on open fires, but some farmers are now using the traditional holiday favorite in many other ways — making treats like hummus, soup and gluten-free beer.

With a combination of nature, entrepreneurial farming and some help from Michigan State University, Michigan has become a national leader in growing chestnuts and is harvesting more than 100,000 pounds a year.

It's a comeback of sorts for the nuts after the trees that grow them were nearly wiped out by a fungus that destroyed billions of chestnut trees across the country by the 1950s.

"If I had a million pounds of chestnuts, I could sell them tomorrow," said Roger Blackwell, president of the Chestnut Growers Inc., a cooperative of 29 growers across the state.

Roasting the nuts at Christmastime still is popular, Blackwell said, but additional uses have fueled the industry's growth. Unlike other nuts, chestnuts are full of water — rather than oil — which means they can be dried out and ground up like grain to make flour. Their natural sweetness makes them ideal for pastries.

Researchers say the American Chestnut tree was once king of the forest in the eastern U.S., producing a decay-resistant hardwood perfect for building things like railroad ties, barns and other structures left out in the elements. In the 1940s, Mel Torme and Bob Wells lionized chestnuts in "The Christmas Song," later made famous by Nat King Cole.

But a fungus, first noticed in the early 1900s, took out billions of the trees. By the 1950s, it was rare to see a mature tree that hadn't been destroyed. Most chestnuts sold in stores were imported from Italy and China.

By the 1990s, Michigan farmers sensed a potential cash crop if the nuts could be grown successfully. Dennis Fulbright — a professor of plants, soils and microbial sciences at MSU — was researching chestnut trees and isolated a natural advantage that Michigan could exploit.

The fungus that kills the trees was itself susceptible to a virus tha! t occurs naturally in Michigan.

"We don't know where the virus came from," Fulbright said. "But it slows down the fungus considerably to the point where the trees' resistance can work."

Scientists helped by finding a hybrid tree that combines European and Japanese varieties. They produce larger nuts and a larger crop.

Fulbright said that eventually farmers hope to grow about 3,000 pounds of nuts per acre. The nuts sell for about $2 per pound wholesale and can fetch three times that much when sold retail, said Joyce Ivory of the Chestnut Growers.

The Henry Ford buys Michigan-grown chestnuts, and roasts and sells them during its Holiday Nights in Greenfield Village.

Jesse Eisenhuth, director of Food Services for the Henry Ford, said it's important to musuem to buy local.

"Chestnuts are a type of food most people equate with the holidays," Eisenhuth said. "Few people, however, have actually tasted them. We see a lot of people at our Holiday Nights program in Greenfield Village, eating chestnuts for the first time."

Fulbright said chestnuts give growers a diversity of products to offer; that helps when something goes wrong with their other crops.

"It's an alternative crop," Fulbright said. "We didn't freeze out the year of the big freeze in Michigan. If your apples or cherries are damaged, you still have your chestnuts."

Fulbright said Michigan's fruit belt on the west side of the state, where apples and cherry thrive, is perfect for chestnuts. But he sees other areas that can grow them, too.

Ivory and her husband, Peter, grow chestnuts on their property in Lapeer County in the Thumb. Fulbright said he initially doubted they could do well there, but: "They've proven me wrong, and I like to be proven wrong."

Fulbright said soil conditions and other factors in metro Detroit could make chestnut-growing possible here, too.

"This a great agricultural story," Fulbright said. "There are not too many start-ups in agriculture in our lifetime."

Boeing Union Rejects Offer, Company Looks Elsewhere to Build 777X

After three days of talks between Boeing Co. (NYSE: BA) and the International Association of Machinists & Aerospace Workers (IAM) local union ended Thursday night, the union's leadership rejected what Boeing called its “best and final” contract extension offer. As part of its offer to the union, Boeing would have committed to doing final assembly of the new 777X aircraft and the assembly of the plane’s composite wing at a plant in Washington and would have committed to doing final assembly work on the 737 MAX through 2024.

Just a month ago, the IAM membership rejected a Boeing contract extension that called for cuts in wage increases for union members, reduced health care benefits and lower company contributions to its defined benefit retirement plan. Some 67% of IAM members voted to reject that deal.

Boeing tried to sweeten yesterday’s offer to the union, adding $5,000 to its previous offer of a $10,000 signing bonus and improving dental benefits. The company made no change its previous pension offer, which would have allowed union members to keep what they have accrued to date under the defined benefit plan, but base future benefits on a defined contribution plan. The pension benefit issue was the primary reason Boeing’s November offer was rejected.

Boeing said it has received offers to build a new plant for assembling the 777X from 22 states, many of which have submitted multiple sites. A total of 54 sites are being evaluated for a new plant location.

After the IAM rejected Boeing’s offer in November, we suggested that the negotiations were not really over between the two sides. Building a new plant in Washington and taking advantage of the available talent pool in the state is still the company’s best option for assembling its new planes. The union could win its struggle with Boeing over the long-term pension benefits issue because the company’s current management eventually will figure out that it will not be around when the bill comes due and paying the benefits will be somebody else’s problem.

Tuesday, May 19, 2015

After iPad Air, will Apple make an iPad Pro?

The biggest news from Apple's product launch event Tuesday was the new name for the company's flagship 9.7 inch tablet, the iPad Air.

The name is fueling speculation that Apple may be developing a high-end tablet called an iPad Pro for work tasks that are currently performed on PCs.

"The name change is likely intentional. Everything that Apple articulates it does for a reason," said Will Power, an analyst at RW Baird. "Developing an iPad that is better designed for productivity is something that could very well make sense."

Apple already makes this distinction with its line of laptop and notebook computers, calling the slimmer version the MacBook Air and the more expensive, heavier-duty model the MacBook Pro. It also offers a Mac mini, a small desktop computer, and uses that word to describe the 7.9 inch iPad.

"This would seem to leave room for a 'Pro' model at some point if a market for a higher performance tablet exists," Gene Munster, an analyst at Piper Jaffray, wrote in a note to investors after Apple unveiled the iPad Air Tuesday.

There may well be a huge market for a tablet that can do most of the tasks office workers need to get done, such as word processing, creating presentations and crunching numbers in spreadsheets.

This year, more than 300 million PCs are expected to ship, compared to just over 180 million tablets, according to Gartner estimates.

Apple has sold 170 million iPads so far and most of these devices are used for "consumptive purposes" such as playing games and watching video, rather than productivity, RW Baird's Power noted.

"Put that 170 million number in the context of the number of PCs out there," the analyst said. "There's still a significant growth opportunity for tablets and Apple is trying to find ways to further segment the market."

Apple spokeswoman Trudy Muller declined to comment.

Wednesday, May 13, 2015

Hedge fund trackers shooting the lights out

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A pair of funds that track hedge fund filings are turning out to be much better at producing alpha than the real McCoys, but questions remain about how they will do if stocks head south.

The $117 million Global X Top Holdings ETF (GURU) and the $74.8 million 13D Activist Fund (DDDAX) were both up more than 23% year-to-date through Aug. 21, crushing the S&P 500's 16% return over the same time period.

They funds are also pounding the fabled investors that the funds are mimicking.

Through the first six months of this year, the most recently available data, the funds were up 19% and 17%, respectively, while the Morningstar MSCI Composite Hedge Fund Index, an asset-weighted composite of almost 1,000 hedge funds, was up just 7.2%.

Both the funds base their holdings on hedge fund filings, but each does it a bit differently.

The Global X Top Holdings ETF tracks an index that uses a proprietary methodology to select holdings from 63 different hedge fund managers, based on their 13F filings, which hedge funds with more than $100 million in assets are required to file quarterly.

The 13D Activist Fund, as its name suggests, is based on 13D filings, which hedge funds have to file when they buy a stake of 5% or more in any publicly traded company. These filings are typically tied to so-called activist investors such as Bill Ackman or Carl Icahn.

Even though the funds are tracking hedge fund filings, they aren't doing any hedging themselves. They are both plain-old long-only stock funds.

Because neither of the funds are two years old yet, their funds haven't been tested yet in a down market and it is unclear whether relying on hot hedge fund picks will help if stocks start to sag.

“When the market takes a dive a lot of people might sell their winners very quickly to take profits,” said Josh Charney, an alternatives analyst at Morningstar Inc. “I'd be concerned if I was doing this on the side and the market takes a dive.”

In the funds' defense, even without hedges, they have offered investors a surprising amount of downside protection over the past year.

The 13D Activist Fund has only captured 41% of the market's downside over the past year, while capturing 130% of the upside, according to Morningstar.

Global X's Guru ETF has captured 76% of the downside and 163% of the upside.

The average large-cap mutual fund captured 97% of the downside and just over 100% of the upside.

Ken Squire, portfolio manager of the 13D Activist Fund, is con! fident that the performance can keep up.

The average 13D holding period lasts about 15 months, and those stocks have an average return of 15% over that time period, he said.

Mr. Squire attributes the success, in part, to the star power of the hedge funders that his fund follows.

“They're not only putting capital on the line, they're also putting their reputations on the line,” he said.

Tuesday, May 12, 2015

New Housing Starts, Building Permits Hit Doldrums

The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development reported this morning that new housing starts in August rose to an annual seasonally adjusted rate of 891,000, an increase of 0.9% from the upwardly revised July rate of 883,000, and a gain of 19% above the August 2012 rate of 749,000. The consensus estimate from a survey of economists expected a rate of around 915,000.

The seasonally adjusted rate of new building permits fell to 918,000, which is 3.8% below the upwardly revised July rate of 954,000 and 11% higher than the July 2012 rate of 827,000. The consensus estimate called for 950,000 new permits.

Single-family housing starts rose to an annualized rate of 628,000 in August, up 7% from the downwardly revised July rate of 587,000.

Permits for new single-family homes rose 3% in August to an adjusted annual rate of 627,000 from an upwardly revised total of 609,000 in July.

Information on multifamily housing is sketchy for August because the Census Bureau's data does not meet the agency's standards for reliability on buildings of two to four units. Starts on buildings with five or more units fell 9.4% month-over-month in August, but remain 22.9% higher than August 2012.

Sunday, May 10, 2015

The Art Of Cutting Your Losses

One of the most enduring sayings on Wall Street is "Cut your losses short and let your winners run." Sage advice, but many investors still appear to do the opposite, selling stocks after a small gain only to watch them head higher, or holding a stock with a small loss, only to see it worsen.

No one will deliberately buy a stock they believe will go down in price and be worth less than what they paid for it. However, buying stocks that drop in value is inherent to the nature of investing. The objective, therefore, is not to avoid losses, but to minimize the losses. Realizing a capital loss before it gets out of hand separates successful investors from the rest. In this article, we'll help you stand out from the crowd and show you how to identify when you should make your move.

Reasons Investors Hold Stocks With Large Unrealized Losses
In spite of the logic for cutting losses short, many small investors are still left holding the proverbial bag. They inevitably end up with a number of stock positions with large unrealized capital losses. At best, it's "dead" money; at worst, it drops further in value and never recovers. Typically, investors believe that the reason they have so many large, unrealized losses is because they bought the stock at the wrong time or it was a matter of bad luck. Rarely do they believe it is because of their own behavioral biases.

Let's look at a few of these biases:
Stocks Always Bounce Back - Don't They?
A glance at a long-term chart of any major stock index will see a line that moves from the lower-left corner to the upper right. The stock market, over any long time period, will always make new highs. Knowing that the stock market will go higher, investors mistakenly assume that their stocks will eventually bounce back. However, a stock index is made up of successful companies. It is an index of winners. Those less successful stocks may have been part of an index at one time, but if they've dropped significantly in value, they will eventually be replaced by more successful companies. The indexes are always being replenished by dropping the losers and replacing them with winners. Looking at the major indexes tends to overstate the resiliency of the average stock, which does not necessarily bounce back. In fact, many companies never regain their past highs and some go bankrupt.
Investors Do Not Like Admitting They've Made a Mistake
By avoiding selling a stock at a loss, many investors do not have to admit to themselves that they've made a judgment error. Under the false illusion that it is not a loss until the stock is sold, they elect to continue to hold a losing position. In doing so, they avoid the regret of a bad choice. After a stock suffers a loss, many investors plan to hold onto it until it returns to its purchase price. They intend to sell the stock once they recover this paper loss. This means they will break even, and "erase" their mistake. Unfortunately, many of these same stocks will continue to slide.
Neglect
When stock portfolios are doing well, investors often tend to them like well-maintained gardens. They show great interest in managing their investments and harvesting the fruits of their labor. However, when their stocks are holding steady or are dropping in value, especially for long time periods, many investors lose interest. As a result, these well-maintained stock portfolios start showing signs of neglect. Rather than weeding out the losers, many investors do nothing at all. Inertia takes over and, instead of pruning their losses, they often let them grow out of control.
Hope Springs Eternal
Hope is the belief in the possibility of a positive outcome, even though there is some evidence to the contrary. Hope is also one of the primary theological virtues in various religious traditions. Although hope has its place in theology, it does not belong in the cold hard reality of the stock market. In spite of continuing bad news, investors will steadfastly hold onto their losing stocks, based only on the faint hope that they will at least return to the purchase price. The decision to hold is not based on rational analysis or a well-thought-out strategy; and unfortunately, wishing and hoping that a stock will go up does not make it happen. Realizing Capital Losses
Often you just have to bite the bullet and sell your stock at a loss before those losses get bigger. The first thing to understand is that hope is not a strategy. An investor has to have a logical reason to hold a losing position. The second point is, what you paid for a stock is irrelevant to its future direction. The stock will go up or down based on forces in the stock market, the stock's underlying fundamentals and its future prospects.

Let's look at a few ways of assuring a small loss does not become "dead" money or turn into a much larger loss.
Have an Investment Strategy
Having a written investment strategy with a set of rules both for buying and selling stocks will provide the discipline to sell stocks before the losses blossom. The strategy could be based on fundamental, technical or quantitative factors.
Have Reasons to Sell a Stock
An investor generally has quite a few reasons why he or she bought a stock, but typically no set boundaries for when to sell it. Don't let this happen to you. Set reasons to sell stocks, and sell them when these things occur. The reason could be as simple as: "Sell if bad news is released about corporate developments or a price target."
Set Stop Losses
Having a stop-loss order on shares that you own, particularly the more volatile stocks, has been a mainstay of advice on this subject. The stop-loss order prevents your emotions from taking over and will limit your losses.
Would You Buy the Stock Now?
On a regular basis, review every stock you hold and ask yourself the simple question: "If I did not own this stock, would I buy it today?" If the answer is a resounding "No", then it should be sold. Tax-Loss Harvesting Strategies
A tax-loss harvesting strategy is used to realize capital losses on a regular basis and provides some discipline against holding losing stocks for extended time periods. To put your stock sales in a more positive light, remember that you receive tax credits that can be used to offset taxes on your capital gains.

Conclusion
Taking corrective action before your losses worsen is always a good strategy. In investing, avoiding losses entirely may not be possible; successful investors accept this and try to minimize their losses rather than avoid them. Selling a stock at a loss and receiving a tax credit is one benefit you will receive. Selling these "dogs" has another advantage too - you will not be reminded of your past mistake every time you look at your investment statement.

Tuesday, April 28, 2015

Freelancer Or Employer: Identifying Your Next Career Move

While the current economic recovery in the United States may be a little less robust than was first envisioned, it has at least been sustained during the first two financial quarters of 2013. This sluggish period of growth is a consequence of the Great Recession, as consumer confidence continues to fluctuate wildly and the U.S. employment market experiences its weakest recovery since World War II.

While the global economic recession may have triggered long-term stagnation, it has also impacted heavily on behavioral trends in the U.S. This is most noticeable in the changing nature of business start-ups and the entrepreneurs who operate in the U.S. A growing number of individuals have been forced to work independently out of necessity rather than a deep-rooted desire or long-term aspiration.

The Rise of the Freelancer: Does it Represent a Good Career Move for You?
This trend is reflected in the rising number of freelancers in the U.S., which reached an estimated 42 million during 2012. Including temporary workers and self-employed individuals, this demographic now accounts for approximately 33% of the U.S. employment market and is set to grow even further over the next decade. As recently as 2010, technology giant Intuit predicted that freelancers would make up 40% of the total workforce by the year 2020, and while this may have a positive impact on lowering the national unemployment rate, it raises other issues concerning long-term job security, pension plans and the average citizen's ability to save.

With these points in mind, you will need to give careful thought to your next career move as you consider the alternative benefits of freelancing and traditional employment. Keep the following factors in mind as you appraise each individual option:

Industry Growth and its Compatibility with Remote Working
The industry in which you work has a key influence in determining your preferred method of working, especially if you are to maximize your earning potential and achieve career advancement. A survey conducted by freelance giant Elance in September 2012 revealed that businesses across numerous industries are posting a record number of fractional and project-oriented jobs, with 42% of employers also confirming that they anticipate hiring more independent workers in 2013 than the previous year. While this reflects the widespread and diverse growth that defines the market, it is important to remember that the remote nature of freelancing remains more compatible with some sectors and job types than others.

Further evaluation of this report suggests that creative and technical jobs are the fastest growing in the freelance market, as the vast majority of work can be assigned and completed online. Individuals with IT, multimedia and software programming skills can therefore expect to find well-paid and continuous work while freelancing, while 2012 also saw a significant rise in the demand for mobile application developers and accountants. While the market is constantly evolving to include new sectors and job types, it is important to evaluate your own specific niche and skill set prior to forging a career as a freelancer.

Time Vs. Money and Your Earning Potential as a Freelancer
When it comes to evaluating the viability of freelancing, it is important to calculate your earning potential and the number of hours that you will need to work in order to achieve your financial goals. This conundrum of time versus money is crucial to determining the precise value that you place on your marketable skills, and whether or not making the transition from traditional employment would be worthwhile. To begin with, it is worth noting that the typical U.S. citizen worked a total of 1,776 hours during 2011, which means that the average working week consisted of just over 34 hours.

In contrast, U.S. freelancers worked an average of 39 hours each week during 2011, which represents a considerable difference over the course of a single year. Despite this trend being prominent across several continents, a global study of freelancers revealed that 48.7% earned less that they had anticipated despite their increased output. An even greater concern is the issue that freelancers have had with regards to acquiring payment for completed work, with 40% of the global talent pool claiming that they struggled to claim the wages that they were owed. It is important to keep this in mind, as you must consider which method of working affords you the best financial rewards for your effort.

Your Personal Circumstances and Long-Term Goals
Although freelancing continues to gain in popularity, it is important to remember that there are disadvantages associated with this method of working. The most prominent disadvantage is a lack of benefits, as freelancers cannot access employment contract staples such as statutory sick pay and healthcare coverage. When you consider that the primary motivation to work remains financial remuneration and the compensation that is offered in exchange for your services, the lack of a detailed contract means that freelancers are often at a significant disadvantage within the existing employment market.

Freelancers must also cope without a long-term pension plan, which can seriously impinge upon their ability to save and secure financial independence. Given that U.S. workers are already held in the grip of a pension crisis and facing the prospect of exhausting their funds just 14 years into retirement, those who operate as freelancers appear to be facing an even more uncertain future. While there are personal and retirement account options that can help you to save towards your future as an independent contractor, you must also factor in the lack of employer contributions and your specific retirement goals before establishing yourself as a freelancer.

The Bottom Line
By giving careful consideration to these factors and your long-term goals as an individual, it is possible to gain an insight into the reality of freelancing and whether it is viable for your specific circumstances. Although the increasing accessibility of independent contracting has undoubtedly created vital opportunities within a struggling job market, it is important to remember that this method of working also has considerable disadvantages in comparison with traditional employment. If you are considering going it alone as a freelancer, you must make a balanced decision and ensure that you are not swayed by popular opinion or sheer volume of freelancing growth statistics.