Ulta Salon, Cosmetics & Fragrance, Inc. (NASDAQ:ULTA) will conduct a conference call to discuss its first quarter 2014 results on Tuesday, June 10, 2014 at 5:00 p.m. Eastern Time / 4:00 p.m. Central Time. A press release detailing the Company's first quarter 2014 results will be issued after the market closes and prior to the call.
Wall Street anticipates that the beauty retailer maker will earn $0.74 per share for the quarter, which is $0.09 more than last year's profit of $0.65 per share. iStock expects Ulta to hit Wall Street's consensus number, the iEstimate is $0.74, but there could be upside for both numbers, read on…
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Sales, like earnings, are expected to increase; jumping 20.1% year-over-year (YoY). ULTA's consensus revenue estimate for Q1 is $699.85 million, which is a lot more than last year's $582.71 million.
Ulta Beauty offers a unique combination of over 20,000 prestige and mass beauty products across the categories of cosmetics, fragrance, haircare, skincare, bath and body products and salon styling tools. Ulta Beauty also offers a full-service salon and a wide range of salon haircare products in all of its stores. As of February 1, 2014 the Company operates 675 retail stores across 46 states and also distributes its products through the Company's website: www.ulta.com.
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Ulta has been a phenomenal bullish earnings surprise delivering machine. The specialty retailer topped Wall Street's consensus EPS view for at least 16 consecutive quarters. In the last four years, ULTA averaged $0.04 more in profits per share than expected by the street. Beats ranged from 1.89% to 40% more than forecasted.
As you might expect, ULTA shareholder were happy in the days surrounding quarterly checkup a lot more often than not. You'd be right. Investors bought the beauty supplies chain 13 of the last 16 quarters, driving the share price higher by an average of 10.52%. Meanwhile, the trifecta of declines were -3.7%, -16.3% and -16.6%, painful.
Now, Q1 always show quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) revenue declines. It's to be expected in the retail space post-Christmas. Typically, the falloff is 24% of more QoQ; however, this year might prove to be less volatile than the last four June announcements.
According to Google Trends, search volume intensity (SVI) is down 16.67 from the fourth quarter, which is a lot less than the typical quarter-to-quarter Q4 to Q1 decline. Meanwhile, YoY queries are up 20.68% and in-line with sales forecasts.
Along with SVI looking favorable, ULTA's income statement in good shape, too. As long as ULTA hits their marks, profit margins should remain constant as management has done a praiseworthy job of keeping costs and expenses in-line.
It's also a positive for margins that inventory per store increased at just 3% YoY while sales moved ahead by 20.28%. The difference is a sign that demand could be outpacing supply.
Overall: Ulta Salon, Cosmetics & Fragrance, Inc. (NASDAQ:ULTA) history and SVI suggest it will be at least 17 consecutive quarters of bullish surprises. If the top line is a little fatter than expected too, then shares have plenty of headroom to move higher.
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